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Molybdenum prices continue to run strong, where is the price peak?

Molybdenum prices continue to run strong, where is the price peak?

(Summary description)After 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic was raging overseas smelting capacity stalled, and a large number of molybdenum concentrates flooded into China, and molybdenum prices fell again. With the global epidemic under control and the economy gradually improving, molybdenum prices have surged again.

Molybdenum prices continue to run strong, where is the price peak?

(Summary description)After 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic was raging overseas smelting capacity stalled, and a large number of molybdenum concentrates flooded into China, and molybdenum prices fell again. With the global epidemic under control and the economy gradually improving, molybdenum prices have surged again.

Information

Under the influence of the economic crisis in 2008, the price of molybdenum dropped rapidly from a high of about 4000 yuan/ton, and showed a downward trend from 2008 to 2015. Since 2016, in the tight balance between supply and demand, molybdenum prices gradually rebounded. After 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic was raging overseas smelting capacity stalled, and a large number of molybdenum concentrates flooded into China, and molybdenum prices fell again. With the global epidemic under control and the economy gradually improving, molybdenum prices have surged again.

 

China is rich in molybdenum resources, accounting for more than half

USGS data show that in 2021, the world's molybdenum reserves were 16 million tons, and China's reserves were 8.3 million tons, accounting for more than 51%, which is the richest molybdenum resource in the world. The United States and Peru ranked second and third, with 2.7 million and 2.3 million tons of molybdenum reserves, respectively, and CR3 resources accounted for 83% of the global reserves.

China is rich in molybdenum resources, with a total reserves of 8.3 million tons. There are 222 mining areas with proven reserves, distributed in 28 provinces. Henan Province has the most molybdenum resources, accounting for 30.1% of the country's total molybdenum reserves, followed by Shaanxi and Jilin Province, accounting for more than 56.5% of the country's molybdenum reserves.

 

 

Demand is greater than the supply of high certainty, molybdenum prices are expected to remain high.

According to data published by the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA), global molybdenum production in 2021 was 261,200 tons, down 4% from 273,200 tons in 2020. In 2021, global molybdenum consumption was 277,200 tons, up 13% from 244,800 tons in the previous year. The supply gap was 16,000 tons, with a gap rate of 5.8%.

The primary consumption of molybdenum metal is mainly used in iron and steel, producing low alloy steel, alloy steel, stainless steel, tool steel, cast iron, high temperature alloy and molybdenum base alloy. The secondary consumption is mainly used in energy, infrastructure, transportation, aerospace military industry and other fields, and has broad application space in nuclear energy, photovoltaic, LCD, sensor, military materials and other emerging fields.

 

According to IMOA statistics, the global molybdenum consumption structure in 2020 is: alloy steel 39%, special stainless steel 24%, alloy tool steel 7%, cast iron/cast steel 8%, nickel alloy 3%, molybdenum metal 6%, chemical 13%.

China, the largest molybdenum producer, increased by 14% year-on-year from 88,450 tons in 2020 to 100,833 tons in 2021 and was the only region to increase production in 2021. South America is the second largest molybdenum producing region, with an output of 82,236 tons, down 9% from 90,219 tons in the previous year; North America produced 58,332 tons, down 16% from 69,717 tons in 2020; Other countries and regions saw the largest decline in production, from 24,857 tons in 2020 to 19,822 tons.

The overall demand for molybdenum is increasing, but the output of other countries except China has declined, resulting in the overall state of supply exceeds demand.

 

The replacement of high-end steel is accelerating, and the downstream demand is strong

Molybdenum, as a "strategic rare small metal", has a strong demand in both traditional steel and new energy fields.

In recent years, the iron and steel industry in our country is undergoing structural adjustment, the state has formulated a series of industrial policies to support the development of high-end alloy steel industry, and has clarified the important position of special steel products with high technology content and for high-end manufacturing.

 

On the other hand, China is vigorously promoting the recovery of traditional infrastructure, real estate, water conservancy, so the domestic demand for steel is clear, so the demand for molybdenum will also grow steadily; On the other hand, molybdenum also plays an important role in the field of new energy. For example, in the photovoltaic field, molybdenum is one of the metal materials for the back electrode of the thin film plate; For example, for wind power generation, thin molybdenum alloy steel housing and support frame are used to reduce the weight by 20-40%.

The rapid development of new energy industry will further promote the demand growth of molybdenum. In the case of limited supply, the gap between supply and demand is expected to persist further.

 

In short, with the increase in demand and supply tightening, the future molybdenum boom is expected to remain upward for a long time.

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